2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
Data Category
Variable
Source
Assumptions
State & Local Restrictions
Water Use Restrictions
None
Sine/cosine functions to capture monthly pattern Constant income at 2022 value (real dollars) Derived from CDR housing unit projections, assuming residential area remains at 2024 levels
Seasonality
Median income
US Census
Housing density
CDR
Persons Per Household
CDR
CDR projected demographics
Federal Reserve
Gross Domestic Product
Long-term GDP trend
Relative Sectoral Employment Passive Efficiency Estimates
CDR
Calculated based on CDR projections
Assumes a 2% decrease in residential demand due to conservation by 2030 (linearly extrapolated), then no change None (occurred between March 2020 and May 2023)
Flume Insight
COVID Binary Indicator
The baseline scenario assumes no active conservation measures.
Residential use (single-family and multifamily) accounts for approximately 60% of total Orange County demand and is expected to drive changes to the total demand forecast, despite CII use increasing as jobs increase. Figure ES-1 indicates that multifamily growth is expected to outpace single-family growth out to 2050.
800,000
800,000
700,000
700,000
600,000
600,000
500,000
500,000
January 2025 – January 2030
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
200,000
200,000
100,000
100,000
0
0
Historical
Projected
Historical
Projected
Figure ES-1: Single-family and Multifamily Growth
Additionally, Figure ES-2 shows that average persons per household is expected to decrease for both residential sectors while household density increases.
9
Appendix G - 14
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