2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
were used to simulate two climate scenarios, dry/warm and wet/cool. The dry/warm scenario showed increased water demand due to higher temperatures, while the wet/cool scenario, when paired with a 3% annual price increase above inflation, demonstrated demand suppression. The 2025 Urban Water Management Plan (UWMP) requires agencies to project long-term water demand under three hydrologic conditions, normal year, single dry year, and five consecutive dry years, over a 20- year horizon in 5-year increments. In this model, the single dry year scenario used a hot-dry index (HDI) to identify the year with the most weather-sensitive demand, with 2014 selected for most agencies. The multiple dry year was developed to describe the potential impact of consecutive dry years. Figure ES-3 summarizes all forecasts.
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
Historical
Baseline Normal Year
Single Hot/Dry Year
2nd Hot/Dry Year
3rd Hot/Dry Year
4th Hot/Dry Year
5th Hot/Dry Year
High Demand Scenario
Low Demand Scenario
Figure ES-3: Baseline, Alternative, and UWMP Forecasts
Although Orange County demands are forecast to be relatively flat into the future, Figure ES-3 shows that annual variations in weather could cause high fluctuations.
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Appendix G - 16
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