2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
MWDOC, OCWD, and Hazen chose the econometric approach as it provides estimates of how variability in explanatory variables affect water use. An econometric model also facilitates future scenario planning because the future values of explanatory variables are easy to change to present different scenarios. The model relies on a comprehensive dataset of historical water-use data collected from Orange County retail agencies. Water use is provided from 2010 to 2025 (where available) for almost 40 different billing sectors; the 15-year history enables Hazen to fit the models to a range of historical droughts, price variations, and socioeconomic patterns. Hazen fit the approximately 40 different billing sectors into 4 demand sectors to limit the total project effort while providing a reliable forecast. Prior to developing the forecasts, model calibration and fine tuning for each of the four demand sectors occurred at the individual retail agency level. The forecasts for individual agencies were then summed to the regional level. This TM first discusses data collection and the model fitting process and ends with the demand forecasts as presented in Figure 1-1 .
Figure 1-1: Econometric Demand Forecast Development Process
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Appendix G - 18
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