2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
2. Historical Data Collection and Review Demand model development requires a robust historical data set comprised of water consumption, driver units (billing accounts), and explanatory variables to explain historical changes in water use. The explanatory variables used in the models reflect both data availability and Hazen’s nationwide demand modeling experience, which has focused heavily on variables that affect long term demand in California. Table 2-1 provides a summary of the data used to develop the econometric models.
Table 2-1: Summary of Historical Data Collected for Model Development
Data Category
Dataset
Data Source(s)
Historical billed consumption and accounts For SF, MF, and Irr uses: Single- family, and multifamily, commercial, and irrigation accounts, Dedicated Irrigation (potable, recycled & raw water)
Retailer billing records (2010 – 2024)
Water Use
Retailer billing records (2010 – 2024)
Driver Units
For CII uses: CII Sectoral employment
US Census
Observed weather (monthly precipitation, monthly maximum temperature)
Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) Retail agency provided (2010 – 2024) State Water Resources Control Board Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Real Gross Domestic Product: All Industries in Orange County, CA US Census American Community Survey (ACS) US Census American Community Survey (ACS), California State University Fullerton Center for Demographics Research (CDR), Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG) land use data US Census LODES, Center for Demographics Research (CDR) Analysis of trend indicators and MWDOC/FLUME insight Assumed active from March 2020 – May 2023
Water Price
Drought Restrictions
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Median income
Explanatory Variables
Housing density
Persons Per Household
Relative sectoral economic activity
Passive Efficiency Estimates
COVID Binary Indicator
The following sections provide a detailed description of each dataset summarized in Table 2-1. Data sources documented in this section are limited to historical datasets; a review of datasets describing projected future conditions and assumptions are documented in Section 4 .
2-1
Appendix G - 20
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