2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
0.10
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0.00
-0.02
-0.04
-0.06
Detrended and Logged GDP
-0.08
Figure 2-4: GDP Departure from Trend
The detrended GDP series shows the timing and magnitude of economic expansion prior to the effects of the Great Recession (after 2008) and COVID (in 2020) on macroeconomic output, while highlighting periods of positive and negative economic growth relative to the long-term trend.
2.1.9
Median Household Income
Median household income was identified as a potential explanatory variable for the residential sectors. Economic theory suggests a positive correlation between income and demand; generally, areas with higher median incomes tend to use more water. Median income was estimated from the US Census American Community Survey (ACS) data as the median value of all census tracts within each retailer’s service area boundary. Median income was adjusted for inflation by normalizing to 2022-dollar values and held constant over time for each retailer ( Table 2-7 ) because future changes in income are unknown and will likely change slowly.
2-12
Appendix G - 31
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