2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
Table 3-5: CII Regression Variables and Coefficients
Explanatory Variable
General Directional Influence
Model Coefficient Range
Proportion of Total Jobs in Retail Proportion of Total Jobs in Education Proportion of Total Jobs in Services
+ + + +
0.42
0.287 0.294
GDP
0.81
Marginal price (per 20 CCF)
-
-0.114
Departure from normal monthly maximum temperature Departure from normal monthly maximum temperature (lagged 1 month) Departure from normal monthly precipitation Departure from normal monthly precipitation (lagged 1 month) Departure from normal monthly precipitation (lagged 2 month)
+
0 to 1.63
+
0 to 0.7
-
0 to -0.50
-
0 to -0.06
-
0 to -0.034
Residual Trend
- -
-0.01 to 0.01 -0.24 to 0.17
State Requested Percent Restriction
The coefficients for CII indicate the job proportion used: total services portion, total education portion, and total retail portion. CII use per job is positively correlated with each job proportion as well as gross domestic product throughout Orange County.
3.5.2
Historical Model Performance
Visual inspection and performance metrics showed good model performance, including the same seasonal cycle and quantities. Like other classes, most fits exceed an R 2 of 80%. Figure 3-4 shows the model performance for an example agency.
3-12
Appendix G - 49
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