2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
Observed
Modeled
0
Figure 3-4: Modeled vs Historical Water Use per Account for CII Use for an Agency
3.6 Irrigation Regression Development
This section reviews the development of the statistical regression model for the irrigation sector. Both potable and recycled irrigation water demands were included in the analysis.
3.6.1
Explanatory Variables and Fitted Coefficients
Explanatory variables for the final Irrigation regression equation, along with their coefficients, are reported in Table 3-6 .
Table 3-6: Irrigation Regression Variables and Coefficients
General Directional Influence
Explanatory Variable
Model Coefficient Range
Marginal Price (per 20 CCF)
-
-0.14
Normal monthly maximum temperature
+
0 to 2.58
Normal monthly maximum temperature (lagged 1 month)
+
0 to 2.34
Normal monthly precipitation
-
0 to -0.13
Normal monthly precipitation (lagged 1 month)
-
0 to -0.11
Normal monthly precipitation (lagged 2 month)
-
0 to -0.068
Agency Stage 1
-
-0.46
Agency Stage 2
-
-0.13
Agency Stage 3
-
-0.37
COVID
-0.18 to 0.26
3-13
Appendix G - 50
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