2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
Table of Contents
Table of Figures .............................................................................................................................. 1 Table of Tables ............................................................................................................................... 2 List of Modeling Terms .................................................................................................................. 3 List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................ 4 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 5 Econometric Approach and Data Acquisition................................................................ 5 Econometric Model Development ................................................................................. 7 Baseline Forecast ........................................................................................................... 8 Alternative Forecasts and UWMP Scenarios ............................................................... 10 1. Introduction........................................................................................................................... 1-1 2. Historical Data Collection and Review ................................................................................ 2-1 2.1.1 Standardized Agency Billing Sectors.............................................................. 2-3 2.1.2 Standardized Agency Rate of Use................................................................... 2-4 2.1.3 Development of Retail Agency Driver Units.................................................. 2-5 2.1.4 Residential Housing Units .............................................................................. 2-6 2.1.5 CII Jobs ........................................................................................................... 2-7 2.1.6 Historical Weather Data ................................................................................ 2-10 2.1.7 Water Price.................................................................................................... 2-11 2.1.8 Economic Indices .......................................................................................... 2-11 2.1.9 Median Household Income ........................................................................... 2-12 2.1.10 Mix of Industries ........................................................................................... 2-13 2.1.11 Housing Density............................................................................................ 2-14 2.1.12 Persons per Household .................................................................................. 2-16 2.1.13 Households Per Account ............................................................................... 2-17 2.1.14 Conservation ................................................................................................. 2-17 2.1.15 Drought Restrictions ..................................................................................... 2-18 2.1.16 COVID 2-18 3. Model Approach and Development...................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Modeling Approach .................................................................................................... 3-1
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Appendix G - 3
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