2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
3.2 Model Development.................................................................................................... 3-4 3.2.1 Model Fitting................................................................................................... 3-4 3.2.2 Summary of Explanatory Variables ................................................................ 3-5 3.3 Single-family Regression Development ..................................................................... 3-7 3.3.1 Explanatory Variables and Fitted Coefficients ............................................... 3-7 3.3.2 Historical Model Performance ........................................................................ 3-8 3.4 Multifamily Regression Development ........................................................................ 3-9 3.4.1 Explanatory Variables and Fitted Coefficients ............................................... 3-9 3.4.2 Historical Model Performance ...................................................................... 3-10 3.5 CII Regression Development .................................................................................... 3-11 3.5.1 Explanatory Variables and Fitted Coefficients ............................................. 3-11 3.5.2 Historical Model Performance ...................................................................... 3-12 3.6 Irrigation Regression Development .......................................................................... 3-13 3.6.1 Explanatory Variables and Fitted Coefficients ............................................. 3-13 3.6.2 Historical Model Performance ...................................................................... 3-14 3.7 Price Elasticity .......................................................................................................... 3-14 3.8 Model Development Summary ................................................................................. 3-15 4. Future Demand Analysis ...................................................................................................... 4-1 4.1 Baseline Scenario Assumptions .................................................................................. 4-3 4.2 Development of Forecast Inputs ................................................................................. 4-4 4.2.1 Retailer Driver Units ....................................................................................... 4-4 4.2.2 Weather and Climate....................................................................................... 4-6 4.2.3 Water Price...................................................................................................... 4-7 4.2.4 Detrended Economic Factor............................................................................ 4-7 4.2.5 Median Income................................................................................................ 4-7 4.2.6 Housing Density.............................................................................................. 4-7 4.2.7 Persons Per Household.................................................................................... 4-8 4.2.8 Relative Sectoral Employment........................................................................ 4-8 4.2.9 Seasonality ...................................................................................................... 4-8 4.2.10 Conservation ................................................................................................... 4-8 4.3 Baseline Sectoral Forecasts......................................................................................... 4-9
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Appendix G - 4
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