2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
Table of Figures Figure ES-1: Single-family and Multifamily Growth..................................................................... 9 Figure ES-2: Demographic Parameters ........................................................................................ 10 Figure ES-3: Baseline, Alternative, and UWMP Forecasts .......................................................... 11 Figure 1-1: Econometric Demand Forecast Development Process ............................................. 1-2 Figure 2-1: Summary of Time Range of Available Billing Data Provided by Retail Agencies.. 2-2 Figure 2-2: Billing Sectors by standardized demand sector ........................................................ 2-4 Figure 2-3: Example smoothing of consumption for an Agency with a Billing Structure that Changes Over Time............................................................................................................ 2-5 Figure 2-4: GDP Departure from Trend .................................................................................... 2-12 Figure 2-5: 2024 Household Density (average households per acre) ........................................ 2-16 Figure 2-6: 2024 Estimated Persons per Household.................................................................. 2-17 Figure 2-7: Time Series of Historical Water Restrictions Imposed by the State....................... 2-18 Figure 3-1: Improving Coefficient Accuracy by Addressing Multiple Demand Factors ............ 3-3 Figure 3-2: Modeled vs Historical Water Use per Account for Single-Family for One Agency 3-9 Figure 3-3: Modeled vs Historical Water Use per Account for Multifamily for an Agency..... 3-11 Figure 3-4: Modeled vs Historical Water Use per Account for CII Use for an Agency ........... 3-13 Figure 3-5: Modeled vs Historical Water Use per Account for Irrigation for an Agency......... 3-14 Figure 3-6: Estimated Seasonal Price Elasticities by Demand Sector for Orange County Water Agencies ........................................................................................................................... 3-15 Figure 4-1: Historical and Projected Demographic Values for Orange County (2010 – 2050) .. 4-5 Figure 4-2: Historical and Projected Household Growth for Orange County (2010 – 2050)...... 4-6 Figure 4-3: Historical and Projected Job Numbers for Orange County (2002 – 2050)............... 4-6 Figure 4-4: Total Orange County Demands................................................................................. 4-9 Figure 5-1: Flume Quadrants ....................................................................................................... 5-2 Figure 5-2: Climate Forecasts ...................................................................................................... 5-3 Figure 5-3: CMIP6 Climate Change Futures ............................................................................... 5-4 Figure 5-4: Future CMIP6 Scenarios ........................................................................................... 5-5 Figure 5-5: Alternative Demand Scenarios.................................................................................. 5-6 Figure 6-1: Total Orange County Historical Water Use vs Projected Water Demands for All UWMP Scenarios ............................................................................................................... 6-5
1
Appendix G - 6
Powered by FlippingBook