2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
Table of Tables Table ES-1: Summary of Demand Sectors ..................................................................................... 6 Table ES-2: Summary of Historical Data Collected for Model Development ............................... 7 Table ES-3: Future Model Parameters............................................................................................ 8 Table ES-4: Orange County Forecast ........................................................................................... 10 Table 1-1: Pros and Cons of Several Demand Models ................................................................ 1-1 Table 2-1: Summary of Historical Data Collected for Model Development............................... 2-1 Table 2-2: Summary of Standardized Water Use Sectors ........................................................... 2-3 Table 2-3: Driver Units and Rates of Use for each Demand Sector ............................................ 2-6 Table 2-4: 2024 Estimated Residential Driver Units by Retailer ................................................ 2-7 Table 2-5: 2019 LODES and CDR Jobs Comparison ................................................................. 2-8 Table 2-6: Summary of Explanatory Variables ........................................................................... 2-9 Table 2-7: 2024 Median Income by Retailer (2022 $) .............................................................. 2-13 Table 2-8: NAICS Sector Jobs by Model Sector ....................................................................... 2-14 Table 2-9: 2024 Total Residential Acreage ............................................................................... 2-15 Table 3-1: Iterative Process for Developing Econometric Models.............................................. 3-4 Table 3-2: Description of Demand Model Explanatory Variables .............................................. 3-6 Table 3-3: Single-family Regression Variables and Coefficients................................................ 3-8 Table 3-4: Multifamily Regression Variables and Coefficients ................................................ 3-10 Table 3-5: CII Regression Variables and Coefficients .............................................................. 3-12 Table 3-6: Irrigation Regression Variables and Coefficients .................................................... 3-13 Table 4-1: Calibration Factors ..................................................................................................... 4-1 Table 4-2: Other Uses by Agency................................................................................................ 4-2 Table 4-3: Future Model Parameters and Assumptions for Baseline Demand Forecast ............. 4-4 Table 4-4: Projected County-wide Passive Conservation............................................................ 4-8 Table 6-1: Selected Calendar Years for Hot/Dry Weather Scenario ........................................... 6-2 Table 6-2: Regression Coefficients and Variable Values ............................................................ 6-3
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Appendix G - 7
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