2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
multifamily residential housing units, jobs by sector, and total population at five-year intervals from 2025 through 2050. CDR job projections were available at census tract level geographies, which required geoprocessing to retail service area boundaries. Geoprocessing was performed using GIS overlays of census tract boundaries and retail agency service area boundaries to aggregate CDR projections by retail agency as described in Section 2. CDR projections at the retailer level did not always align in magnitude with the historical driver units. To ensure consistency between historical and future datasets, the future time series for driver units were developed by calculating the rate of change in the CDR projections and applying the corresponding CDR rate of change to the last historical value of the driver units. The econometric forecast models were developed using individual retail agencies’ socioeconomic data. The averaged Orange County trends were examined for their potential impacts on future demands. Figure 4-1 shows that average persons per household decreases and average household density increases. These trends are expected to provide decreased residential demand. Residential coefficients are positive for PPH, indicating demand will decrease as PPH decreases. Residential coefficients are negative for household density, indicating demand will decrease as housing density increases.
2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 Jan-10 Sep-23 May-37
5 6 7 8 9 10 Jan-10 Sep-23 May-37
Historical
Projected
Historical
Projected
Figure 4-1: Historical and Projected Demographic Values for Orange County (2010 – 2050)
The decrease in demand inferred from the future explanatory variable values may be counteracted by the forecasted increase in driver units. Within the residential sector, average multifamily household growth exceeds average single-family household growth. Figure 4-2 demonstrates that between 2025 and 2030, projected multifamily households increase substantially while single-family households show very little growth.
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Appendix G - 58
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