2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
800,000
800,000
700,000
700,000
600,000
600,000
500,000
500,000
January 2025 – January 2030
400,000
400,000
300,000
300,000
200,000
200,000
100,000
100,000
0
0
Historical
Projected
Historical
Projected
Figure 4-2: Historical and Projected Household Growth for Orange County (2010 – 2050)
CII demand is expected to increase corresponding to a projected average increase in jobs throughout Orange County ( Figure 4-3 ).
1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 1,800,000 2,000,000
Historical
Projected
Figure 4-3: Historical and Projected Job Numbers for Orange County (2002 – 2050)
Although the counteracting explanatory variable values and driver units indicate that demands may remain flat into the future, variations in demand by sector exist at the retail agency level and underscore the importance of the econometric models for each agency.
4.2.2
Weather and Climate
For the model baseline scenario , future precipitation and temperature values were assumed to be equal to historical normal values. Historical normal values were calculated as the average monthly values based on all values from 1991 to 2024. The demand model uses departures from historical normal precipitation and temperature for the residential and CII forecasts and unadjusted historical normal precipitation and temperature for the irrigation forecasts. Given this, future weather inputs in the residential and CII
4-6
Appendix G - 59
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