2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
Figure 5-2: Climate Forecasts
Climate data is applied to the baseline weather patterns in a two-step process:
1) Download the CMIP6 datasets for each of the four Flume quadrants using Python scripts, then calculate the difference in the modeled future and modeled historical (delta, ∆) for temperature and precipitation ( Equations 5-1 and 5-2 ):
Equation 5-1
∆𝑇𝑒𝑚𝑝 = 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝐹𝑢𝑡𝑢𝑟𝑒 𝑇𝑒𝑚𝑝 − 𝑀𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙𝑒𝑑 𝐻𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑎𝑙 𝑇𝑒𝑚𝑝
ௌௗ ி௨௧௨ ௌௗ ு௦௧
∆𝑃𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑖𝑝 =
Equation 5-2
The historical records produced for each model span 1950 to 2014, and the modeled historical data in the equations consist of the average weather parameter for each month over that period. Modeled futures extend from 2015 to 2100. 2) Apply the changes, or deltas, to the historical normal weather values. The historical normal has the same value each month, but applying a different delta value each month allows the climate change impacts to differ in the future. Each agency was matched to the Flume-specific quadrant and the appropriate regional delta values.
5-3
Appendix G - 66
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