2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
Future climate projections based on many CMIP6 models indicate a general increase in water demands over the forecast period ( Figure 5-3 ). Note that the models shown are applied to a total baseline demand scenario prior to member agency review and final numbers were published.
520,000
510,000
Dry Warm
500,000
490,000
480,000
Wet Cool
470,000
460,000
450,000
Baseline
DryWarm: CNRM-ESM2 - 1_585
DryWarm: MIROC6_585
DryWarm: KACE-1-0-G_370
DryCool: MRI-ESM2-0_370
DryCool: CESM2-LENS_370
DryCool: MPI-ESM1-2-HR_370
DryCool: GFDL-ESM4_370
WetWarm: HadGEM3-GC31-LL_585
WetWarm: ACCESS-CM2_585
WetWarm: ACCESS-CM2_370
WetWarm: TaiESM1_370
WetCool: EC-Earth3-Veg_370
WetCool: FGOALS-g3_370
DryWarm: KACE-1-0-G_585
WetCool: FGOALS-g3_585
Figure 5-3: CMIP6 Climate Change Futures
CMIP6 data from the 15 model runs that were determined to be a good fit for California were substituted for baseline weather conditions in the demand model, and the resulting total Orange County demand was used to define a dry warm (high demand) scenario and a wet cool (lower demand) scenario to provide a range of possible climate impacted outcomes. Both scenarios predict increasing temperatures, and as a result, water demands that are higher than baseline demands.
5-4
Appendix G - 67
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