2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
5.1.2
Alternative Forecasts
The dry warm, and wet cool CMIP6 scenarios are depicted relative to historical Orange County demands in Figure 5-4 .
700,000
650,000
600,000
550,000
Dry Warm Scenario
500,000
Wet Cool Scenario
450,000
Historical
Baseline Normal Year
Dry Warm: KACE-1-0-G_585
Wet Cool: FGOALS-g3_585
Figure 5-4: Future CMIP6 Scenarios
To create a possible envelope of demands with only two additional (non-baseline) forecasts, a long-term price increase (in addition to inflation) was imposed on the wet-cool simulation to illustrate additional price pressure (i.e., further decrease in demands). The price increase was assumed to be 3% per year for the entire forecast period. Figure 5-5 shows that the general increases in demand are suppressed when price increases are included in the forecast.
5-5
Appendix G - 68
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