2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
through 2050. This increase is largely driven by an increase in the driver units of total non-agricultural jobs. Irrigation demand decreases due to higher water prices from 2025 to 2030, then remains constant thereafter.
4.3.2
Forecast Summary
The baseline scenario results represent a projection of future water demand for Orange County, assuming no additional active conservation . The scenario assumptions outlined in Section 4 reflect a reasonable estimate of the future conditions of parameters known to influence water demand derived from multiple available sources. The forecast uses ACS and CDR data to depict local and regional trends in demographics and development in the demand model. Consistent with regional trends, demands in the single-family sector are forecasted to remain relatively flat over the next 25 years as there is not expected to be substantial growth in single-family housing units. Growth in residential demand is largely forecast to occur in the multifamily sector, consistent with anticipated increases in multifamily housing. Demands in the CII sector are also expected to increase, which is consistent with CDR forecasts of total jobs in the county. Increasing water rates and housing density are expected to have some modulating effect on demand (as housing density and water rates increase, water demand decreases); however, under the baseline scenario, projected changes in the values of these variables do not completely counteract the effects of growth in overall driver units.
4-10
Appendix G - 63
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