2025 Orange County Water Demand Projection Model
5. Alternative Forecasts Alternative forecasts were established using new climate data and possible additional water rate increases. Alternative demand scenarios consider the potential effects of climate change on precipitation and temperature using CMIP6 data from CalAdapt. A 2021 report explains why the CalAdapt models best represent the California climate. 5
5.1.1
Future Climate Change
CMIP6 is the sixth phase of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) and includes 134 models from 53 modelling centers. CMIP6 relies on Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) that describe plausible futures of societal development and impacts on greenhouse gas emissions. Downscaling originally included only dynamic downscaling, in which high-resolution physics-based simulations are used to help models reproduce the location and frequency of events that drive regional weather and climate. The State has introduced statistical downscaling, in which dynamically downscaled simulations train a new version of Localized Construction Analogs (LOCA) to downscale a broader set of GCMs than would be computationally feasible with dynamical downscaling. Alternative forecasts were established using new climate data with the same quadrants Flume developed ( Figure 5-1 ) to evaluate varying microclimates and the age of housing stock across Orange County (North and South Coastal, and North and South Inland).
5 Interim Deliverable for EPC-20-006, Prepared by: Will Krantz, David Pierce, Naomi Goldenson, Danile Cayaan; November 29, 2021
5-1
Appendix G - 64
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